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Sir Alan Peacock - Keeping a cool head about climate change



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Published Date: 27 September 2008


THE Institute of Economic Affairs has published Climate Change Policy: Challenging the Activists edited by energy economist Colin Robinson.
Authors such as David Henderson, Russell Lewis, Julian Morris are bonny fighters for the truth and I am privileged to join them in exploring why economists, even those who respect scientific evidence for climate change, are sceptical of the zeal for
subjecting man to an elaborate system of control.

Lewis reminds us it is only a few years ago that scientists warned of the onset of the "new ice age" to which human action, such as the use of aerosols, was a contributory factor. It was even suggested that the rise in carbon emissions with growing industrialisation would not be sufficiently counteractive.

There is an argument that the evidence and modelling has improved since scientists reached this incorrect conclusion. In addition, climate change scientists say, it is undeniable that the pumping of into the air is positively correlated with the growth of industrialisation.

Robinson and Morris demonstrate that this conclusion, when subject to the simplest statistical test, fails.

In theorising, they point out, climate change modellers need not accept that the future will be like the past.

Modellers say: "Is there not sufficient evidence of global warming in the melting of the polar ice caps?"

Here we come to a second reason for scepticism. If true, this can only be, at most, partial evidence in their favour. More generally, policy should require guidance from modelling on the time scale of global warming and its magnitude.

The EU's leaders – with the exception of Czech president Vaclav Klaus – have accepted the word of the vocal chairman of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Dr Rajendra Pauchauri.

Profound differences have emerged between Pauchauri and the many scientists invited to give opinions to the IPCC.

Henderson, a leading expert on the economics of climate change, makes the telling point that agencies, such as the World Bank and IMF, serve us ill if they continue to accept this "false consensus" and make recommendations for Draconian taxes and regulations that are unenforceable and incompatible with more pressing policy aims such as reducing world poverty.

That brings us to the third reason for scepticism. Whatever the cause of climate change – man-made or not – there must be considerable uncertainty about the timing and scale of its effect on our welfare. Even if the likely effect were agreed, the sacrifice we make now in order to counteract it must depend on how we evaluate future benefits against costs.

The conventional wisdom is to have governments decide, and the Stern Report – the Bible for enthusiastic believers – offers two reasons why this should be the case: the private sector is not to be trusted to voluntarily invest to reduce emissions sufficiently and private persons cannot be trusted to take into account the welfare of future generations.

In Challenging the Activists, Ian Byatt, a former deputy chief economic adviser to the Treasury, shows how these arbitrary judgements are used to advocate drastic action that circumstances hardly justify.

I argue that the main danger to rational discussion is the entrenched position of extreme environmentalists who are clever political operators.

To compare their activities with religious extremism is modish, but enlightening. Prophecy leading to identification of sin, salvation and heresy can be identified in their pronouncements.

Conventional wisdom offers support to this fanaticism and perhaps this should make Royal Society (RS) members more critical of their top brass.

They recently published Climate Change Controversies : a Simple Guide which is simply a polemic against sceptics.

Freeman Dyson, Princeton professor of physics, and a Fellow of the RS remarked: "The authors (...] appear to have forgotten the ancient motto of the Royal Society: Nullus in Verba, Nobody's Word is Final."

• Sir Alan Peacock is a former chief economic adviser to the Dept. of Trade & Industry.





The full article contains 650 words and appears in The Scotsman newspaper.
Page 1 of 1

 
1

truthsleuth,

27/09/2008 02:14:08
The measures required to counter accelerated climate change are the same as those that will improve the economic survival of western nations and remove our dependance upon the whims of the Islamic world and the Russian Bear.
They will also contribute towards a more pleasant and sustainable world.
They need not determine the end of the motor car or aviation but would provide the conditions for moderation of their use and the more serious damage they tend to create.
The only real opposition to Accelerated Climate Change comes from those individuals and industries who fear their future is threatened by the possible changes required and will do anything to stop them from doing so.
2

nabodican,

Rural Scotland 27/09/2008 06:01:39
A well written by Sir Alan Peacock.
These so called "environmentalists" first create a state of fear and then tell us they have the answer so they can make lots of money out of it.
Just look at the letter by Jim Mather and his comment on the largest wind farm in europe - I do hope he is getting a big enough back hander to justify such a stupid and ill informed letter.
3

Slioch,

Scottish Highlands 27/09/2008 08:52:09
What a remarkably ill-constructed and ignorant piece of writing by Sir Alan Peacock.

He starts off with the “scientists predicted an ice-age in the seventies” canard, though he will not be able to provide a single scientific paper from that time that does so. Nor, even were the myth true, would it have any relevance to present concerns, based as it is on huge amounts of scientific data and vastly superior understanding of the climate system. Except, that is, in the scientifically illiterate minds of the perennial deniers.

He continues by apparently doubting that the “growth of industrialisation” has increased the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. As an illustration of ignorant denial, that takes some beating.

He then misstates and misunderstands the structure of the IPCC report, which is not based on “the word of … Dr Rajendra Pauchauri”. Sir Alan is apparently unaware anyone – anyone at all – could give opinions to the IPCC on its report and, not surprisingly, some of those perennial deniers did so.

He finally loses all sense of reality by equating the real causes for concern provided by the scientific evidence for global warming with “religious extremism”. That is a delusion that normally only surfaces amongst the more rabid of bloggers and is hardly appropriate for someone in Sir Alan’s position, or former position, should I say.

If that is the sort of ill-informed advice that Sir Alan proffered during his tenure at the Dept. of Trade & Industry, it is little wonder we are now in the mess we are.
4

Unimpressed one,

27/09/2008 09:20:18
The deniers are out in force again gnashing their teeth because they don't like to hear some common sense. They still haven't realised that no matter how many graphs, reports, models, endorsements or political statements are put out to 'prove' climate change is man-made, the final arbiter of truth is the real climate. So far there's no evidence that we are heading for 'climate catastrophe' in any form. My challenge for the greens is simple: name ONE scare or doomsday scenario pronouced by them over the last 100 years that has actually happened. Answers on the back of a postage stamp.
5

Unimpressed one,

27/09/2008 09:23:36
Slioch, "He continues by apparently doubting that the “growth of industrialisation” has increased the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. As an illustration of ignorant denial, that takes some beating."

But the fact that despite increasing CO2 emissions and temperatures have started to decline means that basically the 'greenhouse' hypothesis is excrement. Get over it, get a life.
6

seanie,

27/09/2008 09:27:40
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/warming/

"The 1990s were the warmest complete decade in the series. The warmest year of the entire series has been 1998, with a temperature of 0.546°C above the 1961-90 mean. Twelve of the thirteen warmest years in the series have now occurred in the past thirteen years (1995-2007). The only year in the last thirteen not among the warmest twelve is 1996 (replaced in the warm list by 1990). The period 2001-2007 is 0.21°C warmer than the 1991-2000 decade."
7

seanie,

27/09/2008 09:27:54
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/myths/2.html

"A simple mathematical calculation of the temperature change over the latest decade (1998-2007) alone shows a continued warming of 0.1 °C per decade."
8

seanie,

27/09/2008 09:28:07
http://www.yaleclimatemediaforum.org/dept/0108_globaltemp.htm

"To determine if warming has recently stopped, consider the data from the past eight years, from 2000 to 2007. This is a more meaningful comparison than 1998 to 2007, as 1998 temperatures were anomalously high as a result of the "El Niño of the century" (pdf), a natural cyclical event that produced an enormous temperature spike relative to surrounding years. Choosing an El Niño year as that start of the dataset would amount to rather egregious cherry picking (though both GISS temp and HadCRU would still show a warming trend over the decade)."

"Over the past eight years, Earth has warmed 0.025 degrees C per year according to GISS, and 0.014 degrees C per year according to HadCRU, so GISS shows slightly faster warming than over the long-term trend of 0.018 degrees C per year, and HadCRU shows warming slightly slower."
9

seanie,

27/09/2008 09:28:20
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2007/

"It is apparent that there is no letup in the steep global warming trend of the past 30 years (see 5-year mean curve in Figure 1a).

"Global warming stopped in 1998," has become a recent mantra of those who wish to deny the reality of human-caused global warming. The continued rapid increase of the five-year running mean temperature exposes this assertion as nonsense. In reality, global temperature jumped two standard deviations above the trend line in 1998 because the "El Niño of the century" coincided with the calendar year, but there has been no lessening of the underlying warming trend."
10

seanie,

27/09/2008 09:41:41
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/news/warming_goes_on.html

"Anyone who thinks global warming has stopped has their head in the sand. The evidence is clear – the long-term trend in global temperatures is rising, and humans are largely responsible for this rise."
11

fred bloggs,

Edinburgh 27/09/2008 10:10:16
What a nerve!

This geriatric reactionary is puffing a piece of which he is a co-author:

http://www.iea.org.uk/record.jsp?type=release&ID=147
12

seanie,

27/09/2008 13:06:16
http://www.iea.org.uk/files/upld-release147pdf?.pdf

That's the report in question. The foreword gives a flavour. I've only skimmed it so far but I was looking in particular for where "Robinson and Morris demonstrate that this conclusion, when subject to the simplest statistical test, fails."

Haven't seen anything to sunstantiate this.

As to the rest it appears to be your standard Hayekian/Cato Institute/Von Mises/Freidmanite twaddle.
13

seanie,

27/09/2008 14:30:58
Nope. Read it all and nowhere, in reference to industrialisation and rsing CO2 do "Robinson and Morris demonstrate that this conclusion, when subject to the simplest statistical test, fails."

Which suggests Sir Alan Peacock hasn't actually read the report he's co-authored. If so maybe he's not a as daft as he seems. Who'd want to wade through such tripe?
14

Calvinist,

27/09/2008 15:59:00
Yes, there are two voices of unreason here; the sceptics and the eco-warriors but in the middle lies hard science. It is ironic in the extreme that this article is written by an economist- the ultimate discredited pseudo-science (surely now the evidence is overwhelming). What is depressing about these articles is that the are written by politicians, environmentalists and , apparently, now by economists. Here's a refreshing idea. As this is a science section, why not get a real scientist to write an article on this topic?
Nullus in Verba, Peacock old chum.
15

Unimpressed one,

27/09/2008 16:15:17
#14, "It is ironic in the extreme that this article is written by an economist- the ultimate discredited pseudo-science (surely now the evidence is overwhelming)."

This line of thinking should be extended to the Stern report as well then.
16

Unimpressed one,

27/09/2008 16:18:53
#14, "Here's a refreshing idea. As this is a science section, why not get a real scientist to write an article on this topic?"

Like this:

Another skeptic: Dr. Martin Hertzberg, a retired Navy meteorologist with a PhD in physical chemistry

A letter to USA Today from Dr. Hertzberg [ruthhertzberg@msn.com]:

As a scientist and life-long liberal Democrat, I find the constant regurgitation of the anecdotal, fear mongering clap-trap about human-caused global warming (the Levi, Borgerson article of 9/24/08) to be a disservice to science, to your readers, and to the quality of the political dialogue leading up to the election. The overwhelming weight of scientific evidence shows that the Gore-IPCC theory that human activity is causing global warming is false. For details see my article, "The Lynching of Carbon Dioxide", in the "guest authors" section of www.carbon-sense.com .

The difference between a scientist and propagandist is clear. If a scientist has a theory, he searches diligently for data that might contradict it so that he can test it further or refine it. The propagandist carefully selects only the data that agrees with his theory and dutifully ignores any that contradicts it. The global warming alarmists don't even bother with data! All they have are half-baked computer models that are totally out of touch with reality and have already been proven to be false.

Here is some of the latest data. From the El Nino year of 1998 until Jan., 2007, the average temperature of the earth's atmosphere near its surface decreased some 0.25 C. From Jan., 2007 until the Spring of 2008, it dropped a whopping 0.75 C. The National Weather Service just issued a Sea Ice Advisory for the Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal waters for significant ice developing in the next 10 to 14 days, with sea surface temperatures some 2 to 8 C colder than last year. Such recent data is "just the tip of the iceberg" that is in process of sinking the Gore-IPCC ship of cards.



17

seanie,

27/09/2008 16:21:03
Better to judge a report on its own merits. And this particular one is a stinker. The foreword alone is a farrago of nonsense.
18

seanie,

27/09/2008 16:22:22
"From the El Nino year of 1998 until Jan., 2007, the average temperature of the earth's atmosphere near its surface decreased some 0.25 C."

That alone demonstrates he's a crank.
19

Unimpressed one,

27/09/2008 16:25:01
#18, "That alone demonstrates he's a crank."

Typical greenie - shoot the messenger.
20

seanie,

27/09/2008 16:37:51
It's the message that's the problem. Drawing significance from the difference in temperature between the global average for 1998 and that of January 2007 is so egregious and statistically invalid that there's little point wasting time with such an obvious crank.
21

eyeswide,

30/09/2008 13:26:49
Seed article:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/sep/22/climatechange.scienceofclimatechange

"The new research confirms that the world has cooled slightly since 2005"

"Vicky Pope of the Met Office said the new research was in response to high-profile claims made by Lawson the former chancellor, and others that the recent cooling showed that fears of climate change are overblown, and that temperatures are unlikely to rise as high as predicted." She said: "It has confused people. We got a lot of emails asking whether global warming had stopped and it prompted us to look at the data again."

"Despite the recent cooling, average temperatures are still rising at 0.09C per decade, the office says - down from the record 0.33C per decade measured during the 1990s."

"The evidence is clear, the long-term trend in global temperatures is rising, and humans are largely responsible for this rise. Global warming does not mean that each year will be warmer than the last."

Spin 0.09 into 0.33 again for us please. Did CO2 levels drop at the same precipitous rate over the same period?

22

marcocap,

Rio de Janeiro 30/09/2008 20:07:29
As a former student(now living in Brazil) of Sir Alan when he headed the Economics Department at Edinburgh University I must have inherited some of my mentor's scepticism towards the perceived consequences of climate change in the current ongoing debate.

I would make two observations seen from a third-world viewpoint which I believe to be relevant. Firstly, Brazilian climatologists over the past decade have been taking measurements of air temperature at a height of 1KM above sea-level between the tropics of Cancer and Capricorn which show a reduction in average temperature (not an increase) of 0.1C. per annum. Whatever the reason for this trend which has been completely ignored by the world's hysterical press, presumably because it does not fit the conventional mindset, it has not gone unnoticed by Brazilian energy economists who have lauded it for its potential long-term benefits for agriculture and land use in the tropics. As Nigel Lawson has pointed out in his recent and excellent book - An Appeal to Reason: A Cool Look at Global Warming - we must not be deluded into thinking that the effects of climate change are all negative.

Secondly, there exists an eco-cultural gap between the interpretation and the selectivity of the available data between the developed and the developing nations. Whilst the former have occupied the moral high ground of rightiousness, the latter have been prepared to do lip-service to their pronouncements but with an underlying suspicion that here is another example of the rich nations imposing their collective will on the developing countries. Just as mis-information about Amazon deforestation, ethanol production vs. food production, child labour, etc. has been seized upon by the conscientious green brigades of the European countries, then why not add global warming to the ammunition?
23

Slioch,

Scottish Highlands 01/10/2008 14:41:20
#21 eyeswide

As the graph in the Guardian site that you link to shows, the annual global average temperature (the black line in the graph) varies considerably. There have been numerous instances (I count 9 in the graph shown) since the beginning of the graph (c.1975) when temperatures have dipped for a few years. That is what is happening now.

Your inability to understand Vicky Pope's explanation is consistent with your continued demonstration of paranoid stupidity on all aspects of climate change.

#22 marcocap

Cooling of the upper atmosphere is consistent with climate models.

 

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