Rwanda: Taxpayers warned they could foot almost £4bn bill for Tory asylum seeker plans

The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) estimated the UK would have to pay around £230,000 per asylum seeker, compared to the existing cost of £55,000. An analysis by the left-leaning think-tank suggested payments for the initial 20,000 people could reach up to £3.9 billion.

However, the Home Office said it did not recognise the assumptions made in the calculations.

Under the plans, some asylum seekers arriving in the UK would be sent to Rwanda, in east-central Africa, to have their claims processed.

The scheme aims to deter people from crossing the English Channel on small boats. However, the UK’s Supreme Court ruled in November the proposal was unlawful.

The ruling came amid fears genuine refugees would be forced to return to their home countries where they could face harm, which would breach the European Convention on Human Rights. The ruling also raised concerns about Rwanda’s own record on human rights.

The Westminster government is trying to get round the judgement through legislation stating in law that Rwanda is a safe country.

As part of the Rwanda deal, the IPPR said the UK has to pay up-front fixed costs of £370m, followed by a further £120m once 300 people are relocated to Rwanda, and then £20,000 for each person relocated as part of the Economic Transformation and Integration Fund (ETIF).

In addition to this, it said the UK must pay up to £150,874 per person relocated, to cover the costs of asylum processing and integration, as well as an extra £500 for healthcare.

The IPPR estimated the total payments to Rwanda for removing an initial 20,000 people would range between £1.1bn and £3.9bn – it would cost £1.1bn even if every asylum seeker left Rwanda straight away, while it would cost £3.9bn if all stayed for at least five years.

Marley Morris, IPPR associate director for migration, trade and communities, said: “Aside from the ethical, legal and practical objections, the Rwanda scheme is exceptionally poor value for money. For it to break even, it will need to show a strong deterrent effect, for which there is no compelling evidence.

"Under the government’s plans, billions could be sent to Rwanda to remove people who have already arrived irregularly since the Illegal Migration Act was passed. The only winner from this scheme appears to be the Rwandan government itself, which has already secured hundreds of millions without doing much at all.”

A Home Office spokesperson said: “The report makes a number of assumptions and modelling calculations that we do not recognise.

“Without innovative solutions, the cost of housing asylum seekers could reach up to £11bn per year by 2026. Illegal migration costs lives and perpetuates human trafficking, and it is therefore right that we fund solutions to break this unsustainable cycle.

“The best way of saving taxpayer money is by deterring people from coming here illegally in the first place, and our partnership with Rwanda intends to do just that.”