Humza Yousaf: Is there anything left for SNP leader to ‘come out fighting’ for as no-confidence votes loom?

Whether he sees off a no-confidence vote next week or not, his power move by ditching the Greens from government has completely backfired – with potentially catastrophic consequences for his leadership.

Even if he survives Douglas Ross’s motion of no confidence, backed by Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the furious Greens, it is difficult to see how he can oversee a minority government and be taken seriously by the public. He also has to fight a second no-confidence motion in his entire Government that is going to be submitted by Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar.

In a poetic twist, Mr Yousaf’s fate rests on his former Government colleague Ash Regan, whom he branded “no great loss” when she defected from the SNP to Alex Salmond’s Alba party.

Ms Regan will be the last person in Holyrood Mr Yousaf would want his future in their hands, given she missed out on the SNP leadership to him last year. But will he concede to her demands in order to cling to power?

On Thursday, Ms Regan suggested she wanted reassurance the independence campaign would ramp back up again, as well as conditions over what she regards as more protections for women and girls and a vow for more competence to be restored in government. Quite how the First Minister responds to an assurance of more competence overnight is not particularly clear or straightforward.

Ms Regan gave more details about what will allow her to keep Mr Yousaf in power on Friday – suggesting that support for the Grangemouth oil refinery, which the owners Petroineos, have earmarked for closure, could be needed to sway her.

If Mr Yousaf folds to Ms Regan’s demands, he will have been rescued by an almighty foe. He will look desperate to hold onto power and will surely signal the beginning of the end for his leadership.

If he fails to meet her demands, then he will be kicked out of office by the woman who attempted to take over from Nicola Sturgeon in his place. It would be an astonishing downfall.

The SNP’s Westminster leader, Stephen Flynn, has insisted Mr Yousaf will “come out fighting”, but it’s unclear what is left for the First Minister to fight for. It is also ironic it is Mr Flynn stating that intent, given suggestion that he personally heaped pressure on the FM to dump the Greens, which kickstarted one of the biggest miscalculations Scottish politics has ever seen.

Mr Flynn also insisted he was not trying to oust Ian Blackford as the party’s Westminster leader and was not interested in his job before inevitably becoming the new SNP chief in the Commons.

The First Minister has pledged to write to all opposition party leaders to urge them to support him. In media interviews on Friday, the FM highlighted the disgruntled Greens, urging them to have a change of heart and back him. But this apparent naivety over how hostile the Greens are likely to be to being embarrassed got Mr Yousaf into this mess in the first place. It is extremely unlikely that the Greens will suddenly cave and give Mr Yousaf a route back to power and authority. In order for the Greens to be swayed, the FM would likely have to make huge concessions on policies – essentially putting him back to square one.

Anas Sarwar threw another curveball into the mix on Friday as he pledged to push a motion of no confidence in the Scottish Government. Although Mr Yousaf does not have to quit if he loses his personal motion of no confidence, he surely will have no choice but to resign. But if a motion of no confidence in his government is passed, Holyrood could be braced for an unprecedented election.

If Labour’s motion secures no confidence in the government, Mr Yousaf’s entire Cabinet would be forced to quit – handing MSPs 28 days to try to elect an alternative first minister, with the prospect of a snap Holyrood election if no candidate can gain sufficient support.

Faced with that suggestion on Friday, the First Minister didn’t rule out fighting an election to sort out the self-inflicted mess.

Speaking to Channel 4 News, the FM insisted he is “intending to win the vote of no confidence”, but stressed he “wouldn’t rule out a Holyrood election”. He added: “We’re on an election footing – we’re prepared if that’s required.”

This is tough talk from the First Minister who has endured a nightmare couple of days. But several questions remain over where Mr Yousaf will direct his fight. On Friday, the FM cancelled a previously-arranged media even in Glasgow, instead fronting up a hastily-arranged visit to Dundee to announce £80 million of extra funding for social housing. But this is against a backdrop of cutting almost £200 million from that budget this year.

Mr Yousaf has endured a very difficult first year as First Minister – much of it out of his hands with the police investigation over the SNP finances looming over his leadership. But it is difficult to pinpoint many obvious achievements to show for a gruelling first 12 months in Bute House.

If Mr Yousaf somehow survives what the next week will throw his way, there will be nowhere to hide and no Greens to take the fall for his record in government. It will all be on him and with his authority wounded, potentially fatally, he will be perceived by many, in and out of the SNP, as a man on borrowed time.