SNP vote collapsing: East Kilbride West by-election could be a turning point in Scotland's political future – Brian Wilson

The SNP dropped to third place with fewer than a quarter of votes cast while Labour won on a 12 per cent swing from the Nationalists with the Tories second. This Labour gain was in line with another recent by-election in Bellshill and a pattern is developing which, if confirmed in the impending Rutherglen parliamentary contest, will establish strong Scottish political mood music in the run-up to next year’s general election.

At the same time, a spate of English by-elections will clarify the likelihood of change at Westminster which will, in turn, become a factor that feeds into Scottish electoral behaviour. If confirmed, the realistic prospect of two governments working co-operatively for Scotland’s interests will be attractive to many who despaired of it ever returning.

More than in the past, Scottish votes now tend to move in waves rather than ripples. If there is a widespread perception that the SNP were given the ball at their feet and failed to do much with it under any identifiable heading, then the judgment of the ballot box will be similar across broad swathes of Scotland.

None of this is particularly Mr Yousaf’s fault. The dye was cast on that Monday morning in February when Nicola Sturgeon hastily rearranged her diary in order to inform the nation that she was getting out of there, pronto. At that point, the whole façade started to fall apart. And more than anything, the SNP’s success under Ms Sturgeon depended on façade.

The problem for all nationalist parties is that they have no defining purpose other than nationalism. They may say the NHS is their highest priority or education their defining mission, but it is never actually true. Such causes are not what brought them into politics and their stewardship will always be the means to an end rather than ends in themselves.

With Ms Sturgeon’s abrupt departure, it was inevitable more questions would arise about what had been achieved during her tenure and the answers – whether on health, education, poverty gaps or anything else – were not helpful to the SNP’s cause. Look around and Scotland does not feel like a society moving forward while Holyrood itself has become bogged down in gimmick politics which are falling apart.

Mr Yousaf’s first problem was that nobody who had been paying attention thought he would be there if it had not been set up for him by the previous leadership through abbreviation of the contest. If more SNP members, never mind the general public, knew what was imminent, the “continuity” label would have been the certain kiss of death rather than an anointment to get him across the line.

The second was that Ms Sturgeon took with her the last vestiges of pretence that independence is even vaguely, by some undefined route, on the agenda any time soon. Once Mr Yousaf was obliged to acknowledge this, the single bond that ties nationalism’s disparate forces together was frayed. His muddled effort in Dundee to redefine the route map took it to breaking point.

As a result, many who vaguely thought they were lending their votes to visionaries who would lead us towards a promised land now see only a mediocre administration with no defining purpose other than to hang on to power. There is little in their record and nobody in their leadership to inspire any different conclusion, and it won’t be Mr Yousaf.

And then we have the Greens. There was no need for Ms Sturgeon to bring them into government but she chose to do so. Fairly or unfairly, they have been identified with the specific policies which have most obviously alienated the SNP from the electorate and seem to have persuaded Mr Yousaf that maybe “continuity” isn’t such a good idea after all.

It will not have escaped the notice of his internal critics that the Greens achieved 3.8 per cent support in East Kilbride West which was an improvement on their performance in Bellshill where they mustered a princely 44 votes. There are few council wards in Scotland where they reach double percentage figures. Yet this is the tail licensed to wag the weary lion. No wonder many in the SNP, not to mention the rest of us, ask: “Why?”

There is widespread support in Scotland as elsewhere for policies which reflect environmental imperatives and lead transitions which can create whole new industries and open up huge opportunities, just as oil and gas did. There is not the slightest sign of leadership on these fronts while “green” politics in Scotland are now identified with economic damage, zany policies and a couple of wildly over-promoted individuals.

I always recall a Scottish opinion poll about people’s environmental priorities which confirmed that while they were concerned about climate change and other great issues, the “environment” they most urgently wanted action on was the one in which they lived – the housing, the litter, the desolate town centres and so on. It was a message no government should fail to respect.

The Yousaf regime is unlikely to improve because, if you take away the flags and the grievances, it really is just a bunch of not very competent people administering silos of government without vision or purpose other than to stay in their jobs. Now the façade has collapsed, the electorate seems to have cottoned onto that disappointing reality and as East Kilbride West spoke, so the nation may be ready to follow.