'Doomist' climate scientists have a point in war of words with the 'optimists' – Dr Richard Dixon

This debate was intensified by a survey this month which questioned nearly 400 scientists involved with the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change about where they thought global temperatures are headed. The 2015 UN Paris Agreement requires nations to work together to keep the temperature rise below 2C, with significant efforts towards limiting the rise to ‘only’ 1.5C.

The survey found that almost none of the scientists thought 1.5C was possible, almost 80 per cent thought we are heading for at least 2.5C and almost half expect a world more than 3C warmer. Scientists don’t often offer an emotional commentary but those who took part in the survey, said things like “I find it infuriating, distressing, overwhelming” and “I’m relieved that I do not have children, knowing what the future holds”. Some talked about suffering from depression.

Of course, amongst accelerating impacts, from floods and droughts to heatwaves and storms, it should come as no surprise that climate scientists are disappointed in the lack of action being taken by governments and companies. Professor Kevin Anderson of Manchester’s Tyndall Centre has been saying for a decade that the 1.5C target is unachievable and accuses experts of trying to shut down the debate about the fundamental changes that are needed to produce deep emissions reductions.

Giving up hope

On the other side, scientists like Professor Michael Mann from the University of Pennsylvania agree that things are serious and getting worse but maintain that there is still time to turn things around. Indeed, they believe that the messages from “doomist” scientists and campaigners, who point out the dire future we might be heading for, make people give up hope and think of the climate problem as being too big and hard to tackle. Mann thinks the doomists are doing the fossil fuel industry’s job for them.

'Doomist' propaganda can't hide reality of global warming – Michael E Mann

For a long time, environmental groups were frustrated by the reluctance of most climate scientists to speak out and, in many cases, by their inability to speak in plain terms that the public and politicians could easily understand. Climate communication has become much more sophisticated. The clear message that we are in a bad way, that things are going to get worse and that we need to take very urgent action is now coming loudly from climate scientists and senior UN figures.

Mann claims that the doomists accuse climate scientists of lying to the public. But the other side would say that voices which say ‘it can all be OK, look at the progress and that technology will save us’ feed a complacency that is not justified. In a nice clear bit of communication, Anderson calls this a “litany of optimistic crap”.

The danger is that we will think it is enough to celebrate the progress there is, even though it is, so far, nothing like up to meeting the climate challenge. Progress is good, but we need so much more.

Dr Richard Dixon is an environmental campaigner and consultant